Episode 1389: Too Good to Be Two
Date June 14, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about Shohei Ohtani’s hot streak and future as a two-way player, Sam’s decision to listen to all of the Jeff-era EW episodes and his reactions to a few topics from the final few (including a description of Stan Musial’s retirement tour), and two research papers about pitchers’ perceived effort level and arm strain. Then they answer listener emails about where to host baseball games overseas, future universal uniform number retirements, outsourcing strategic experiments to other teams, and what type of player should make a minor-league hall of fame, plus a Stat Blast about Roy Smalley’s 1979 season and the worst- and best-case scenarios for Cody Bellinger’s second half. Topics * Choosing locations for overseas baseball games * How to grow baseball in Europe * Using minor league teams to experiment with new strategies * Universally retired numbers * Great first halves of the season that quickly deteriorate * Most improved second halves of the season * Who should be in a minor league hall of fame? Intro Rain Parade, "Look Both Ways" Outro Roxy Music, "Both Ends Burning" Broadcast sound clip discussing The MVP Machine Banter * Shohei Ohtani recently hit for the cycle and is one of MLB's hottest hitters. * Will Ohtani remain a two-way player? How good would he need to be in order to just hit? * Sam has started listening to all the episodes featuring Jeff since Episode 1000, but is listening in backwards order. * Stan Musial's retirement tour * Recent academic papers which show the difference between perceived and actual effort * Comparing batter ability and when pitchers throw their peak fastballs Email Questions * Stewart: "As someone who's both an avid Red Sox fan and casual soccer fan, I wanted to write about the upcoming Red Sox "home games" in London against the Yankees. The games are taking place in London Stadium, a multi-purpose facility built for the Olympic Games that has since become home to West Ham United. Reviews of it as a soccer stadium seem to be that it lacks character, but it's modern, and a conventionally sized baseball field can fit in it. Here's what gets me: there are a number of stadiums in England that seem like kindred spirits of Fenway, and one of them is even owned by Fenway Sports Group! If the Red Sox have to play "home games" in England, why not play them at Sox sports brethren Liverpool F.C.'s home Anfield? Soccer stadiums have been used for baseball before, even including Liverpool's other historic stadium, Everton's Goodison Park. The downside, apart from being outside of London, is that the soccer-optimized playing field, even if stripped of all foul territory, would max out at about 330 down one line and 230 down the other with the deepest part being about 395 feel in what would have to be one of the alleys.So to get to my questions: If baseball games are going to be played in non-traditional baseball countries, is it better to find a venue that matches the dimensions of baseball, or is it worth it to pick a historic local venue that calls for warped outfield dimensions?" * Chris: "I was listening to a recent podcast where Ben and Sam discussed the potential merits of switching pitchers during an at-bat. It led me to think about why teams don't try new things that may give them a competitive advantage down the line (could be ineffective and lead to upset players, manager, less trust in the future, etc.). However, I'm sure other teams wouldn't mind better observing new tactics to see their effectiveness (like switching pitchers mid-AB). This led me to an odd idea: could a competitive team try to outsource trials of new tactics to a non-competitive team? For example, what if the Astros offered a mid-tier prospect to the Marlins try out switching pitchers mid-AB? This seems like it'd be collusion, but hypothetically, what would teams pay to have a half-season of trying out new tactics without any ramifications to their own team?" * Amelia: "Will we ever have another universally retired number like Jackie Robinson? What could a current player do to make it happen?" * Jake: "While traveling for work I was able to go to a Portland Sea Dogs game, the Double A affiliate of the Boston Red Sox and previously of the Florida Marlins. In their stadium, they had a wall dedicated to Sea Dogs "Hall of Famers" which was ultimately a list of alumni with success in the majors. The wall included players like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Dustin Pedroia, etc. This made me think, if there was a true MiLB Hall of Fame, who would be those players that had great careers and/or seasons in the Minors? Are there any players who had a minor league season with a WAR similar to Major league greats? Similarly, are there lifelong Minors players with a very high career WAR without extended time in the Majors?" Stat Blast * Sam's friend Mike let him know about Roy Smalley's 1979 season. Smalley had a hot first half of the season, similar to Cody Bellinger, but then dropped off as the season concluded. His OPS dropped 68 of the final 84 days of the season. * Sam wonders what could happen to Cody Bellinger in the second half of the season, using Roy Smalley as an example. * In 2010 Brennan Boesch had a tOPS+ of 167 comparing his first and second halves. * In 1915 Casey Stengel had a first half tOPS+ of 42. Notes * Ben suggests that the first female or openly gay MLB player could have their number universally retired. He and Sam agree that there would have to be some larger cultural or social relevance to a player's career. * In 2000 Mark McGwire reached 37 3-1 counts.After those counts he made just three outs. He hit 3 home runs and walked in the other 31 at-bats. * There is not a unified minor league hall of fame, but many specific leagues have their own ones. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1389: Too Good to Be Two * Lessons From a Legend, 100 Years Later by Zach Kram * The Shohei Ohtani experiment isn't just working - it's been perfect by Sam Miller * Baseball Pitchers' Perceived Effort Does Not Match Actual Measured Effort by Heath Melugin, Dirk Larson, and Glenn Fleisig * Fastball Velocity and Elbow-Varus Torque in Professional Baseball Players by Jonathan Slowik et al. * Can you see a pitcher's fastest fastball coming? Prove it! by Sam Miller * Reaching Back for a Little Extra by Max Marchi * Reaching Back for a Little Extra, Part Two by Max Marchi * 2015 Pacific Association Simulation data * Southern League joins Hall of Fame fray by Benjamin Hill Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes